Supply Disruptions Dominate Tin Market, SHFE Tin Fluctuating at Highs Highlights Supply-Demand Imbalance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

As of the midday close on October 10, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract price continued to fluctuate at highs, with active intraday trading. It once touched 290,000 yuan/mt, rising slightly compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, and overall traded within the range of 284,000 to 290,000 yuan/mt. The recent strength in SHFE tin is mainly supported by expectations of overseas supply tightening, particularly as the Indonesian government's severe crackdown on illegal mining has intensified market concerns about a global tin ore supply deficit.

Industry chain-wise, supply-side disruptions remain the core contradiction in the current market. Indonesia, as a globally important tin producer, sees its policy changes significantly impacting the supply-demand balance. Recently, Bangka Belitung Province in Indonesia completely shut down over a thousand illegal mining sites and required mining enterprises to shorten the RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) approval cycle from three years to one year. While this move is beneficial for industry standardization in the long term, it may suppress the circulation of tin ore through illegal channels in the short term, exacerbating spot tightness. Additionally, the slow progress in resuming production at Myanmar tin mines and low operating rates at smelters in Yunnan due to tight raw material supply further reinforce expectations of supply bottlenecks.

Overall, in the short term, SHFE tin maintains a relatively strong pattern supported by supply disruptions and its financial attributes, but weak demand and a rebound in the US dollar limit upside potential. In the afternoon session, prices may continue testing the 290,000 yuan/mt level; if a breakthrough fails, they could pull back to around 285,000 yuan/mt for consolidation. Investors should closely monitor the implementation of Indonesian policies, the pace of supply recovery from Myanmar mines, and domestic inventory changes. For trading, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach and avoid chasing highs.